Free Money Friday Every Day: Will Auburn be Perfect at Home?

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 8-5 +3.3u:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Mississippi State ML @ South Carolina – lost by 12
  • Penn State ML hosting Michigan State – absolutely choked in the second half to lose by 8
  • Cleveland State +7.5 vs Oakland – lost by 21. Pure system play.
  • Texas/OU O133 – 103 total points; Texas won by 1 on a buzzer beater 3.
  • Lost both legs of MikePick2.

I am bummed that I not only lost the MikePick2, but I actually lost both parts. Despite that, I had a great day betting. I am back over 50% in NCAA Basketball! In the NBA, I am headed back toward profitability. The only way to get there is to keep my foot on the gas, so let’s get into it.


Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap

NCAAB 241-240-9 (5-2 +2.53u):

Jump To: Texas A&M @ Auburn | Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State | Bryant @ St. Francis (PA) | San Jose State @ New Mexico | Wyoming @ Colorado State

Texas A&M @ Auburn:

  • Spread: Auburn -12.5
  • Total: 132 (now 132)

Setting the Scene:

Auburn comes into this game at 24-5 and “tied” for 2nd place in the SEC (LSU) with an 11-5 record. After losing in Rupp on Saturday, Auburn can’t win the regular season title, and they can’t fall out of the Top-4 and lose the double bye in the conference tournament thanks to Mississippi State’s loss last night. They are playing for seeding and a perfect home record.

Texas A&M is 14-14 on the season and 8-8 in the SEC. They are 8th in the SEC between Tennessee (9-8) and Alabama (8-9). I think that makes them half a game behind/ahead, but I don’t understand how half games work. Buzz Williams should be commended on his coaching job this season. The Aggies looked like an SEC bottom dweller during non-conference play, but they have actually had a pretty good conference slate. Arkansas is only 6-10 in conference, and they might make the tournament still.

Trends:

Auburn has not lost a home game all season. They have won 9 of their last 12. They have not been as good against the spread this season (13-16). At home they are 8-8 ATS, and they have been favored in every home game. They are only 11-13 ATS after a win, 9-11 ATS with 2-3 days off, 11-14 ATS as a favorite, 7-9 ATS in conference games, and 5-7 ATS with equal rest.

Texas A&M is 4-4 in road conference games this season with wins over Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. I don’t know if it is worth noting that Auburn lost to Alabama and Missouri on the road. The Aggies are on a two-game losing streak SU and ATS, but they did win the 3 games before that. Their whole season has been like that. TAMU has covered 5 out 8 games on the road; they were the underdog in all 8 games. They are also 10-6 ATS in conference games, 12-9 ATS as an underdog, 8-6 ATS with equal rest, and 9-8 ATS with 2-3 days off. They have lost 5 conference games by at least 13 points. Three of those have been road games.

On the Court:

As their record indicates, Auburn has been quite good this season. They rank 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KemPom. Auburn is elite at offensive rebounding (13th in nation) and FT Rate (3rd in nation). The Tigers are super, super bad at 3-point shooting (29.9% 322nd) and FT shooting (67% 294th). They make up for those deficiencies by shooting a lot of FTs and a lot of 3-pointers.

Texas A&M has been worse than their record shows, especially on offense. They rank 230th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They rank 300th or worse in 5 offensive statistics: Effective FG%, Turnover %, 3P%, Block %, and Steal %. They have been pretty good defensively, ranking 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 31st in opponent turnover % and 34th in opponent FT rate. They are terrible at preventing offensive rebounds (329th) and opponent FT % (332nd).

Auburn’s home conference scoring numbers: 67, 73, 95, 91, 75, 80, 82, 83 = 80.75 pts/game

Texas A&M’s road conference scoring: 50, 74, 54, 48, 63, 66, 69, 59 = 60.38 pts/game

Auburn’s home conference opponent scoring numbers: 58, 66, 91, 90, 66, 67, 60, 79 = 72.13 pts/game

Texas A&M’s road conference opponents: 64, 68, 74, 63, 58, 64, 50, 69 = 63.75 pts/game

The Aggies play at one of the slowest paces in the country. Their average possession length on offense is 322nd in the country and last in the SEC. Auburn plays faster, but they don’t play an insane amount faster.

Analysis:

Texas A&M is going to have to slow this game down to have a chance to win, and they have shown the ability to do it. It’s one of the reasons that their games have continued to have low totals. It’s the reason that the total for this game is so low compared to Auburn’s average total. Auburn is the better team, but we have seen TAMU give a lot of better teams very good games this season. They held Ole Miss to 47 points, held Vanderbilt to 50 points, lost to LSU by 4, beat Mizzou twice, beat Tennessee in Knoxville, held Alabama to 68 on the road, and lost to Kentucky by 9.

I think that this will either be a close game or Auburn will win by 20+. There’s no in-between. I lean towards it being a closer game based on Auburn’s slow starts this season.

The Pick: Texas A&M +12.5 & Under 132

Jump To: Texas A&M @ Auburn | Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State | Bryant @ St. Francis (PA) | San Jose State @ New Mexico | Wyoming @ Colorado State

Eastern Illinois vs Jacksonville State:

  • Spread: Eastern Illinois -2.5 (now -2)
  • Total: 136 (now 138)

Setting the Scene:

It’s the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament! Eastern Illinois is the 6-seed and Jacksonville State is the 7.

Trends:

Jacksonville State has covered the spread in 1 of its last 5 games, and Eastern Illinois has covered the spread in 3 out of its last 5 games.

Analysis:

“Since 2005, teams with good recent ATS form have gone 307-242-11 (55.9%) ATS when facing an opponent with bad recent ATS form. A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $4,896.” – per John Ewing of The Action Network

The Pick: Eastern Illinois -2.5

Jump To: Texas A&M @ Auburn | Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State | Bryant @ St. Francis (PA) | San Jose State @ New Mexico | Wyoming @ Colorado State

Bryant @ St. Francis (PA):

  • Spread: St. Francis -7.5 (now -6.5)
  • Total: 150 (now 150)

Setting the Scene:

It’s the first round of the Northeast Conference Tournament! St. Francis (PA) is the #2 seed, and Bryant is the #7.

Trends:

St. Francis (PA) has covered the spread in 67.9% of their games this season, and Bryant has covered 46.7%.

Analysis:

This is a Poor ATS vs Good ATS game. It is in Loretto, PA which is where St. Francis (PA) is located. So, Bryant is a road team in a conference game.

The Pick: Bryant +6.5

Jump To: Texas A&M @ Auburn | Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State | Bryant @ St. Francis (PA) | San Jose State @ New Mexico | Wyoming @ Colorado State

San Jose State @ New Mexico:

  • Spread: New Mexico -9 (now -9.5)
  • Total: 157 (now 157)

Setting the Scene:

It’s the first round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament! San Jose State is the 10-seed, and New Mexico is the 7-seed.

Trends:

Since 2005, underdogs of more than 6 points have covered 58% of games in the first round of conference tournaments when the line stays the same or moves against them.

On the Court:

Analysis:

This is purely a system play. Just like the two from yesterday in which we went 1-1.

The Pick: San Jose State +9.5

Jump To: Texas A&M @ Auburn | Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State | Bryant @ St. Francis (PA) | San Jose State @ New Mexico | Wyoming @ Colorado State

Wyoming @ Colorado State:

  • Spread: Colorado State -10.5 (now -10.5)
  • Total: 134 (now 136)

Setting the Scene:

It’s the first round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament! Wyoming is the 11-seed, and Colorado State is the 6-seed.

Trends:

Since 2005, underdogs of more than 6 points have covered 58% of games in the first round of conference tournaments when the line stays the same or moves against them.

On the Court:

Analysis:

This is purely a system play. Just like the two from yesterday in which we went 1-1.

The Pick: Wyoming +10.5


Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap | Back to Top


NBA 80-75 (3-0 +2.77u):

Thunder -7.5 @ Pistons:

We are 4-8 Fading Tanking Teams so far this season. The Pistons are so bad, and the Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA at covering the spread.

Jazz -8 @ Knicks:

The Jazz are playing really well lately. I am very happy to take them whilst Fading a Tanking Team here.

Wizards +7.5 @ Trail Blazers:

The Wizards are Road Dogs coming off an ATS loss. We are 5-5 betting these teams this season.

Pelicans @ Mavs O238.5:

Both teams can score. A lot. The Mavs have also been one of the best home over teams this season.


Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap | Back to Top


Sprinkles 42-72 (0-2):

LSU ML @ Arkansas

LSU is playing for seeding in the SEC tournament, and they desperately need a win. They are 3-point underdogs in this game. They’re the better team. They should win. I don’t know if they will, so I will just sprinkle them.

Villanova ML @ Seton Hall

The Big East loves to beat each other. I think this is one of those games that will go down to the wire. In a game that I think could go either way, I will sprinkle Nova.

Minnesota ML @ Indiana

In February, road teams in the Big Ten won 4 games each week. This does not include home games for Nebraska or Northwestern because everyone beats those teams every game. Road teams have already won 3 Big Ten games this week. If I’m not mistaken, Minnesota is a bubble team and boast a road win over Ohio State this season. I think this game is the Big Ten’s best chance to get to 4 road wins this week.

Grizzlies ML @ Nets

The Nets played an incredibly intense OT game against the Celtics last night. I think the Nets might get tired in this game against a young, hungry Grizzlies team that can get out and run behind Ja Morant.


Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap | Back to Top


MikePick2 16-21 (0-1):

Parlay: +168

  • Florida ML @ Georgia
    • Florida needs this win to try to hold onto their double bye for the SEC Tournament.
  • Dayton ML @ Rhode Island

Obi Toppin. That is all.


Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap | Back to Top


Picks Recap:

  • TAMU +12.5
  • TAMU/AUB U132
  • EIU -2.5
  • BRY +6.5
  • SJSU +9.5
  • WYO +10.5
  • Thunder -8
  • Jazz -8
  • Wizards +7.5
  • Pelicans/Mavs O239
  • LSU ML
  • NOVA ML
  • MINN ML
  • Grizzlies ML
  • MP2: UF ML + DAY ML

Jump To: NCAAB Picks/Analysis | NBA Picks/Analysis | Sprinkles | MikePick2 | Picks Recap | Back to Top