Free Money Friday Every Day: Wednesday Winners

I’m not going to lie, yesterday was brutal. I went 3-8. The LSU game was brutal. Kentucky missed the cover by one basket. Ole Miss laid an egg, while UT played their best game of the season. Big12 Unders went 1-2. Purdue (BIG10) lost at home despite being 6 pt favorites. Do not fret, I am not deterred. Here are our Wednesday Winners.

NBA (27-24 53%):

  • San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5)
    • It’s Zion’s debut! I would be hesitant to bet this line because I think most of the action on the Pelicans is due to it being Zion’s debut. On the other hand, the Spurs aren’t very good, and the Pelicans are playing at home. This is one of the most lopsided money percentages of the day, with 77% of the money on the Pelicans to cover the spread, at the time of me writing this.
  • Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (-8.5) and O228.5
    • 40% of bets and 74% of the money is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game. That 34% differential is the highest of the day today. We will ride with the rich folks on this one. Also, Jamal Murray probably won’t play again.
    • The O/U is a little different. The “sharp money” aka the big bettors are on the under, but the “experts” that I trust and follow are on the over. I saw a tweet yesterday that said something to the effect of “professional bettors bet the numbers, not the teams.” I’m paraphrasing there, but I am going to ride with these so called experts because I trust their numbers more than I trust the rich people. I don’t blindly follow big bettors or experts, but I am a sucker for numbers.
  • LA Lakers (-10.5) @ NY Knicks
    • I don’t usually like to bet West Coast teams playing on the East Coast, but the Lakers have gotten 94% of the money on 83% of bets. The Lakers are the Lakers, and the Knicks are the Knicks. Add in the fact that the Lakers got boat raced by the Celtics their last time out, and I think LeBron and Co. will be out for blood against a bad Knicks team.
  • LA Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks(+4)
    • No Kawhi, No PG, No Pat Beverly. I’m not sure who is playing for the Clippers, so I’m going to take the Hawks.

NCAAB (59-63-1 48%):

  • We briefly talked about my love for numbers earlier. How about this:
  • Poor ATS Teams are covering at 55% against Good ATS Teams for a +7% ROI.
    • There are five such games tonight:
      • CSF (+4.5) @ UCD
      • ILS (+9.5) @ BRAD
      • PROV (+8.5) @ Seton Hall
      • SLU @ DAV (-3)
      • GTWN @ XAV (-4)
  • Four of the Top 10 ATS Teams are playing tonight:
    • BAMA (-9) @ VANDY
      • BAMA is 14-3 ATS, #1 in the nation
    • ACU (+5.5) @ SHS
      • ACU is 10-3 ATS, #4 in the nation
    • RUTG (+5.5) @ IOWA
      • Rutgers is 12-4-1 ATS, T6 in the nation
    • ARMY @ LAF (-7.5)
      • Lafayette is 12-4-1 ATS, T6 in the nation
  • Here are my other CBB picks:
    • PSU @ MICH (-5)
      • 96% of the money has come in on Michigan on only 60% of the bests. That is the biggest differential in major college basketball at the time of writing this.
    • BON @ DAY O137
      • 99% of the money is on the over in this one. If I go down, I’m going down with the ship.
    • ARK (+4) @ MSST
      • Arkansas is playing very well, and when the Muss Bus rolls into Starkville, I think that Arkansas is going to give Mississippi State everything they can handle. Reggie Perry can be a difference maker for Mississippi State inside, but I think that Arkansas is good enough (especially in the backcourt) to not only cover but win this game.
  • Sprinkles:
    • ARK ML @ MSST
      • Like I said, I think Arkansas can win this game. I’m not confident enough to take them exclusively to win, so I will take the points, and I will sprinkle the moneyline.
    • MEM @ TLSA ML
      • Per Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports, “Memphis has NEVER won at Tulsa since the creation of the American Conference…Frank Haith’s squad (Tulsa) is tied with Houston for first place in the league standings.”
      • Memphis is probably better than Tulsa. Memphis is favored. I am sprinkling Tulsa ML.
    • TROY ML @ UALR
      • Dan Peck of The Drive with Bill CameronĀ told me to take this, so I did. That is literally it.

MikePick2 (3-3 50%):

  • Parlay +113:
    • PSU @ MICH ML -215
    • RUTG @ IOWA ML -220
    • “Death, taxes, and Big Ten home teams dominating.” – Greg Peterson @GUnit_81