Free Money Friday Every Day: Underdog Thursday is BACK

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 7-7-1 +0.47u:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • San Jose State +9.5 @ New Mexico – Conf Tourney 1R Underdog. Lost by 13
  • Thunder -7.5 @ Pistons – Fade Tanking Teams. Won by 7.
  • LSU ML @ Arkansas – lost by 9.
  • TAMU/AUB U133 – 153 total points.
  • MINN ML @ IND – lost by 5.
  • Bryant +6.5 @ St. Francis (PA) – Poor ATS vs Good ATS. Lost by 26.
  • Jazz -8 @ Knicks – Fade Tanking Teams. Push.
  • Wizards +7.5 @ Blazers – Road Dog off ATS Loss. Lost by 20.
  • Won the MikePick2!!

Today’s Picks (Weekend Record):

NCAAB 244-243-10 (3-3):

Illinois @ Ohio State:

Setting the Scene:

Both teams are still alive for an incredibly important Top 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament. This is a huge game.

Trends:

Illinois has been a super streaky team this season. They are currently on a four game winning streak. They beat Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, and Wisconsin on the road in conference play this season. They are one of three Big Ten teams with a winning record on the road.

Ohio State is 14-2 at home this season and 12-4 ATS. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 games.

On the Court:

Ohio State has a better offensive and defensive efficiency, but Illinois is incredible on the offensive glass. Illinois ranks 68th in the country in extra scoring chance opportunities. They have one of the best guard/big man combos in the conference.

Analysis:

Both teams should be extremely motivated, and I think this is going to be an incredibly close game.

The Pick: Illinois +5.5

Lipscomb @ North Florida:

POOR ATS VS GOOD ATS. Lipscomb less than 50%. North Florida is 2nd in the nation at about 70%.

The Pick: Lipscomb +7.5

Texas Southern @ Southern U:

POOR ATS VS GOOD ATS. SOUTHERN has covered almost 70% of their games this season. TEXAS SOUTHERN only about 45%.

The Pick: Texas Southern +4.5

Eastern Illinois vs Austin Peay:

This is a “Conference Tournament: Good recent ATS vs Bad recent ATS” game. We are 1-0 in these. Eastern Illinois has covered 4/5 and Austin Peay has covered 1/5.

The Pick: Eastern Illinois +6

Portland @ Santa Clara:

This is a “Conference Tournament First Round Underdogs” play. We are 2-2 betting teams that are greater than 6-point underdogs in the first round of the conference tournament when the spread either doesn’t move or moves against them.

The Pick: Portland +7.5

Air Force vs San Diego State

This is another “Conference Tournament: Good recent ATS vs Bad recent ATS” game. We are 1-0 in these. Air Force has covered 1/5 and SDSU has covered 3/5.

So, this game has already happened today. I meant to take San Diego State -17 because that is what the system says to do. I accidentally bet on Air Force. I realized this during my live broadcast on ESPN 106.7’s twitter feed. If you watch the video back, you can see I get very flustered when I am talking about this game. That is because I realized I accidentally backed the wrong team.

The game is over now, and Air Force covered the spread. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

The Pick: Air Force +17 (on accident)

NBA 81-77-1 (1-2-1):

Nuggets -10 @ Hornets:

We are going to continue to fade tanking teams.

Raptors -8 @ Warriors:

Steph Curry is coming back tonight, so I think the Raptors are going to murder the Warriors. I think this is a deflated line to get people to back the Warriors because of Steph. We don’t even know how much he is going to play.

Sprinkles 44-74 (2-2):

Alabama State ML hosting Jackson State

MikePick2 17-21 (1-0) +1.11u:

Parlay +140

  • Houston ML @ UCONN
  • ASU ML hosting Washington

Picks Recap:

  • ILL +5.5
  • LIP +7.5
  • TSU +4.5
  • EIU +6
  • PORT +7.5
  • AFA +17
  • Nuggets -10
  • Raptors -8
  • ALST ML
  • MP2: HOU ML + ASU ML