Free Money Friday Every Day: Quality over Quantity

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Yesterday 1-0:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.


Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 193-206-7 (1-0):

  • Baylor @ OU +3
    • I am terrified of this game, but I am going to Fade the Public in Big Conferences on this game. I am 3-4 doing it this year, but the system has won 4 in a row and 6 of 8. I recognize that very recent performance is not indicative of future success, but the system has won at 57%, so let’s do it.
    • Right now, OU has only gotten 21% of the bets.
    • Again, I am terrified of this game. I have seen some conflicting predictions. I have read conflicting opinions. I saw someone who has this predicted as a 1 point spread and someone who says Baylor wins by 4. Because of this fear, I am going to wait until like 7:45 to place this bet if Baylor has still gotten less than 25% of bets.
    • If I’m talking myself into betting OU, here are the things I’m looking at:
      • OU is 3rd in the country in opponent Ft rate. They do not foul.
      • OU is 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is only 5th in the Big12.
      • OU is 44th in opponent 2P%, and Baylor is 232nd in 2P%.
      • OU is 1st in the Big12 in TO%. They don’t turn the ball over.
      • Baylor isn’t a particularly good defensive rebounding team, ranking only 248th in opponent offensive rebounding %, but OU doesn’t get offensive rebounds. They rank dead last in the Big12.
      • OU is 1st in the Big12 in FT% and block%. They are 3rd in 3P% and 4th in 2P%.
      • MaCio Teague might not be playing for Baylor. He is one of their best players.
      • OU should have a size advantage.
      • Baylor plays Kansas on Saturday.
    • If I’m talking myself out of betting OU, here is what I’m looking at:
      • Baylor is 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency
      • Baylor is 4th in offensive rebounding %, and OU is 107th in opponent offensive rebounding %.
      • OU doesn’t foul but Baylor is 208th in FT Rate. They don’t rely on going to the line to get points.
      • Baylor is 77th in the country, shooting over 35% from 3. Baylor allows opponents to make 1/3 of their threes. In conference play, Baylor has made 32.6% and OU has allowed 33.9%.
      • Baylor’s defense is 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 6th in opponent effective FG%, 28th in TO%, and 5th in 2P%.
      • Baylor is used to playing at a size disadvantage. They start 3 guys 6-foot-3 or smaller, and their center is 6-9. Baylor keeps winning games through hard work and effort. That is why their offensive rebounding and defensive numbers are so good.
  • Ole Miss +1.5 @ Mizzou
    • Ole Miss is going to win this game. Mizzou doesn’t have the ability to score with the Rebels, or the size to dominate them inside. Ole Miss should’ve beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena on Saturday before falling short at the end. Ole Miss led or was within one possession until the closing minutes of that game. And Breein Tyree had a normal game by his standards, only 19 and 5. I expect Tyree, Shuler and company to come out looking for blood. They still have a shot at a good finish in the SEC, and they have been dominating the other teams around them in the rankings.
    • Ole Miss Key Recent Results (Tyree Points):
      • L by 4 vs LSU on 1/18 (36)
      • W by 10 @ UGA on 1/25 (20)
      • L by 1 vs AUB in 2OT on 1/28 (8)
      • L by 10 @ LSU on 2/1 (9)
      • W by 14 vs SC on 2/5 (38)
      • W by 17 vs UF on 2/8 (23)
      • W by 25 vs MSU on 2/11 (40)
      • L by 5 @ UK on 2/15 (19)
    • I get that it’s easy to look at those results and say, “They went 4-4 in those games. That’s not impressive.” You’re not wrong about the record; however, in 4 games against by far the Top-3 teams in the SEC, they lost by a combined 20 points, and the Kentucky loss was much closer than the 5-point finish. You can also see that Tyree’s points are like a bonus for Ole Miss. It’s very odd. Usually teams that are 13-12 with an elite scoring guard need that guard to put up big numbers for them to compete. Ole Miss does not. They hung with LSU, Auburn, and Kentucky when Tyree scored under 20 points. Against the other 10 teams in the SEC (i.e. not UK, LSU, AUB, or Ole Miss), Tyree has scored 26, 27, 18, 20, 38, 23, and 40. That is an average of 27.4 points. He’s also shooting an absurd 45% from 3-point range in conference play.
    • Missouri is 11th in the SEC in defensive efficiency during conference play. They rank dead last in opponent FT rate which should really benefit the Rebels since they shoot 75% from the FT line even though they rarely ever get there (they are last in FT rate during conference play).
  • UK +2.5 @ LSU & O145
    • I don’t understand this line at all.
    • Ashton Hagans defense > Skylar Mays offense
      • Hagans averages 2 steals/game and has tallied at least 1 steal in every game this season except the Auburn game during which he was in foul trouble the whole game and limited to 20 minutes before he fouled out. He is an elite defender. This should be a great match-up to watch.
    • Richards/Montgomery vs Watford/Days or Williams is going to be a war.
      • Richards is UK’s 6-11 Jr forward that has been dominating in recent weeks. Montgomery is a 6-10 So forward. Richards/Montgomery average 21 points and 15 rebounds per game and have effective FG%s of 65.7% and 51.7%, respectively. They add about 3 blocks per game on defense.
      • Watford is the Tigers’ tallest player at 6-9, but he is a forward. Days and Williams are both 6-6 and are also forwards. They will all be working inside which is one of the things that makes this battle so interesting. Watford/Days/Williams average about 40 points and about 21 rebounds per game. Williams shoots 3-pointers at 37.5% on the season.
      • It is going to be fascinating to see how Kentucky defends LSU.
    • Quickley and Maxey are going to be the difference in this game.
      • Quickley is UK’s leading scorer at 15 pts/game, and Maxey adds 14. Together, they add about 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals each game. Quickley is an elite shooter. He shoots 38.7% from behind the arc on the season, 43.1% from 3 in conference play, and over 90% from the FT line. Maxey does his damage inside the arc, with a 51.5 eFG% and 55.4 TS% in conference play. I don’t know how LSU defends the two of them. LSU will walk out Ja’vonte Smart to combat the two. Smart is a very good player (12.5/3.2/4.1), but he can’t do it alone.
    • The Bench
      • LSU doesn’t really have one. They only go about 3 players into the bench, and none of their bench players offer much in terms of offensive production. The bench averages around 13.89/9.35/1.95. They play 22.4% of minutes which is 328th in the country.
      • Similarly, UK goes 4 players into their bench, and those players average 16.42/11.21/1.62. They play 26.4% of minutes, 279th.
    • Upside for LSU
      • They don’t foul very much, which is good because UK is 6th in the country in FT shooting %. UK won’t turn them over; they rank last in the SEC in opponent TO%. UK isn’t great at limiting 2nd chance opportunities, and LSU ranks #1 in the SEC at offensive rebound %.
    • Upside for UK
      • The only thing LSU’s defense has been good at during conference play is not fouling. LSU ranks 12th or worse in defensive efficiency, opponent effective FG%, opponent TO%, and opponent 3P%.

Sprinkles 30-50:

  • Ole Miss ML
  • UK ML

MikePick2 12-16 (3 in a row):

  • Parlay +108
    • Penn State ML hosting Illinois
    • Wisconsin ML hosting Purdue