Free Money Friday Every Day: ORU…I hate you

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 7-4:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Oral Roberts -6.5 @ Denver – They lost by 4 in OT. 100-96. Coming into this game, Denver was 1-11 in conference play, and they had lost 18 of their last 19 games. Oral Roberts gave up ONE HUNDRED (100) POINTS. Oral Roberts allowed Denver to shoot 61.4% from inside the arc, and Denver made 25 out of 29 FTs (86.2%). Denver out-rebounded Oral Roberts 42-37, but they turned the ball over 16 times! Those 16 turnovers meant that Denver turned the ball over on 19% of their possessions, that is so high. The worst part? Oral Roberts was up 67-55 with 9 and half minutes left in the game, AND they were up 88-83 with SIXTEEN (16) (8*2) (4*4) SECONDS left in the game. Their win probability was 98.6%. Like I said, they lost by 4 in OT. Their loss cost me a perfect week in the Summit League and last night’s MikePick2. I am so angry at the Golden Eagles; I can barely put it into words. They lost a game in which they scored NINETY-SIX (96) (48*2) (32*3) (24*4) (16*6) (12*8) POINTS! 96! Look at this win probability chart from KenPom:

  • MEM -1 @ SAC – They lost by 4. I didn’t watch this game, so I am not sure what I should be angry about, not gonna lie.
  • MIA -6.5 @ ATL – They lost by 5. Trae Young only scored 50, so it’s hard to be too mad about this one. Oh wait, JUST KIDDING. MAYBE DON’T LET THE OTHER TEAM’S BEST PLAYER SCORE 50 POINTS IN A GAME FOR WHICH YOU HAD THREE FULL DAYS TO PREPARE. THE HAWKS HAVE ONE GOOD PLAYER AND A BUNCH OF OTHER REALLY YOUNG GUYS THAT MIGHT BE GOOD BUT ARE JUST ALRIGHT RIGHT NOW. STOP THE ONE GOOD PLAYER. Sorry, I am still very angry with Oral Roberts.

All things considered (I hate you, Oral Roberts), yesterday was a great day. I am on fire right now. Since Monday, I am 24-13. I went 9-1 in Summit League games this week (not counting the portion of the MikePick2 because I consider that 1 MikePick2 lost not a loss on each portion of the MikePick2). Since the first Monday in February (the 3rd), I am 80-76. Let’s keep it rolling.


Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 208-212-7 (6-1 (freaking Oral Roberts)):

  • Penn -2 @ Dartmouth
    • Dartmouth can’t score. They rank 300th or worse in points per game, adjusted efficiency, offensive rebound %, FT rate, and free throw %. Penn’s defense is actually pretty good. They are 1st in the Ivy League in opponent effective FG% and opponent 2P%; 2nd in the Ivy League in defensive efficiency, opponent FT rate, and opponent FT%; and 3rd in opponent 3P%. That basically boils down to this:
      • Penn’s defense restricts the scoring ability of their opponents by not allowing them to make shots anywhere on the floor, not fouling, and, on the rare occasions they do foul, not fouling good free throw shooters. This means that Penn probably isn’t great defensively inside.
    • If one team can’t score, it will probably be hard for them to win. That’s called analysis people.

NBA 66-63 (1-2):

  • Pacers -6.5 @ NYK
    • The Knicks are what we call a team that is tanking. We are going to continue Fade Tanking Teams even though we lost 2 out of 3 doing so last night.
  • Mavs -4 @ Magic
    • The Mavs are just the better team in this game. The Magic are 8-18-2 ATS this season as underdogs and 10-17-1 ATS at home. They have really struggled against teams that are better than they are, and they have struggled to cover at home.The Mavs are 18-8 straight-up and 18-6-2 ATS on the road. They have been killing it away from American Airlines Center this season. Also, Luka.
  • Nuggets +2 @ OKC
    • The Nuggets are getting Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury, and they are currently own the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. Denver is 9-0 against division opponents this season and have the 3rd best ranking against division foes according to teamrankings.com.

Sprinkles 34-54 (1-0):

    • Saint Louis ML hosting VCU
    • St Peter’s PK @ Manhattan
      • For starters, St. Peter’s has covered the spread in 17 out of their 24 games this season. That is 70.8% and T-6th in the country. They are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog, 9-3 ATS as the away team, 11-4 ATS in conference games, and 5-2 ATS in conference road games. Manhattan, on the other hand, is 5-4 ATS at home, 3-3 ATS as a home favorite, and 7-7 ATS in conference games. So, they are almost exactly average.
      • Peter’s is relatively great defensively. They are #1 in the MAAC in efficiency, effective FG%, 2P%, and block% defensively. They are 2nd in opponent turnover %, 3rd in steal%, and 4th in opponent 3P%. That bodes well against a Manhattan offense that is 9th in the MAAC in efficiency, effective FG%, and 3P%, offensively. They are 11th in the MAAC in FT% at a staggeringly low 59.7%. If this is a close game, St. Peter’s should have an edge.
      • On the other side of the ball, this should actually be a good match-up. The Peacock’s offense is pretty good, but they turn the ball over way too much. The Jaspers’ defense is between pretty good and good, but they struggle to limit offensive rebounds, to not foul, and to defend the 3-point arc.
      • This game opened at St Peter’s +1.5, and it has moved to a PK. I was going to take St. Peter’s +1.5 and sprinkle them on the ML, so I will only sprinkle them as a PK, now.
    • Cavaliers ML @ Wizards
      • The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and I expect the Cavs to get a bit of an interim coach bump here. Give me the Cavs trying to prove they were correct for all wanting their coach fired.
    • Nuggets ML @ OKC
      • See above.

MikePick2 12-19 (0-1 (O. R. A. L. R. O. B. E. R. T. S.)):

    • Parlay: +135
      • Mavs ML @ Magic
      • Pelicans ML @ Blazers
        • No Dame for the Blazers tonight.