As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Sticher, or espnau.com.
Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.
- Summit League Last Week 10-6 +3.2u
- Last Week: 21-25
- NCAAB Last Week: 16-18
- NBA Last Week: 5-7
- Sprinkles Last Week: 4-11; 2 in OT by 2
- MikePick2 Last Week: 2-0
Today’s Picks (Weekend Record):
NCAAB 235-237-9 (7-6):
Texas Tech @ Baylor:
- Spread: Baylor -7.5
- Total: 128 (now 129)
Setting the Scene: Texas Tech heads to Waco sitting at 18-11 on the season and 3rd in the Big 12 at 9-7 in conference. They have lost two games in a row, failing to cover the spread in either, a home loss to Texas by 10 and a road loss to OU by 14. Baylor is 25-3 and 2nd in the Big 12 at 14-2 in conference. They have lost two of their last three games, failing to cover the spread in both losses.
Trends: Texas Tech is 2-1 ATS as an underdog, but all other applicable trends are at 50% or below. Baylor has a slew of positive trends that apply to this game, but we are going to focus on the most important one: on the season they are 19-9 ATS, which is over 67%.
On the Court: This should be a great game. Both teams rank in the top 4 in the Big12 in almost every statistic. Texas Tech struggles to rebound and defend inside the arc, and Baylor struggles to shoot from inside the arc and at the free throw line. The Bears also got their shots blocked pretty frequently.
Analysis: This is a poor ATS vs good ATS game. The Red Raiders cover at 50% on the season, and Baylor up above 67%. That puts them both barely inside our optimal percentages. Since Tech is on the road in a conference game, we’ll take the points. I’m also going to take the under in this game since both teams are so good defensively.
The Pick: Texas Tech +7.5 & Under 129
NBA 74-73 (1-2):
Portland +6.5 @ Orlando:
Portland is Road Dog off an ATS loss.
Rockets -10 @ Knicks, Jazz -8.5 @ Cavs, Mavs -5 @ Bulls:
We are going to continue to fade tanking teams. Also, all three of these road favorites are playing really well right now.
Grizzlies +2 @ Hawks
The Grizzlies are coming off a big win against the Lakers. I expect them to win this game also.
Sprinkles 41-70 (2-3):
Grizzlies ML @ Hawks
MikePick2 16-20 (0-0):
- TTU +7.5
- TTU/BAY U129
- Blazers +6.5
- Rockets -10
- Jazz -8.5
- Mavs -5