Free Money Friday Every Day: I Forgot It’s Underdog Thursday

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Yesterday 8-12-1:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

Yesterday, I had 7 tough losses.

  • Maine +7 – lost by 8
  • Auburn -7.5 – up by 16, up by 8 in OT, won by 4
  • Auburn/Bama U161.5 – I have to say, I did not anticipate an SEC record in 3 pointers from Bama
  • Loyola Illinois -8.5 – won by 7
  • POR +4 @ MEM – lost by 7; Dame got hurt.
  • Oral Roberts -7 – won by 4
  • South Dakota -15.5 – won by 13

So, 8-12-1 could’ve been something like 13-9 if a few bounces/injuries went my way, including the Rutgers +6 push.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record)

NCAAB 179-192-4 (6-10-1):

  • Jacksonville +9 @ North Florida
    • Poor ATS team, on the road, playing a conference opponent who has been tremendous ATS this season.
  • Austin Peay -3 hosting Murray State
  • Winthrop -4.5 @ Garner-Webb
    • I hate betting on Winthrop, but they keep covering.
  • Hampton +5 @ Campbell & O150.5
    • Hampton’s defense is incredibly bad. They rank 347th out of 353 in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s not all. They rank 312th or worse nationally in:
      • Opponent’s Effective FG %
      • Opponent’s Three Point %
      • Opponent’s Two Point %
      • Opponent’ FTA/FGA
      • Points Per Possession
      • Opponent’s Assists/Turnover
      • Opponent’s Off Rebounds %
    • All that means this: The Pirates can’t defend inside or outside the arc, foul too much, leave passing lanes wide open, and give offenses second chances on one in every three missed shots. The over has hit in 12 of their last 13 games.
    • Fortunately for Hampton, the Camels aren’t built to take advantage of the Pirates’ flaws. They don’t get to the line much, don’t rebound well at all, and don’t shoot threes any better than average. Hampton can cover this game.
  • Indiana -1.5 hosting Iowa
    • Iowa’s huge thing on offense is offensive rebounding. They are elite at it. Unfortunately for them, Indiana has been the best team during Big Ten play at preventing offensive rebounds. Iowa has not proven they can win on the road in the Big Ten. They are 1-4, only beating lowly Northwestern. Indiana on the other hand started Big Ten play 4-0 at home before dropping back to back games against Top-10 Maryland and Purdue. Expect a lot of fouls in this game, and I think Indiana will be able to win and cover with FTs late.
  • FGCU -5 @ Kennesaw St & U126.5
    • Kennesaw St is historically bad offensively. Check out these nationally ranked stats:
      • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 351st
      • Effective FG%: 353rd
      • Turnover %: 319th
      • 3P%: 352nd
      • 2P%: 353rd
      • Block%: 302nd
      • Non-Stl TO%: 323rd
      • 3PA/FGA: 335th
      • A/FGM: 347th
      • % of Total Points from FTs: 14th
    • Here’s a brief summary in paragraph form: Kennesaw St is the worst team in the country at shooting the ball. They are the second worst team in the country at shooting three-pointers and the worst at shooting two-pointers. To combat not being able to make three pointers, they rarely shoot them, instead favoring to take 2 pointers that they can’t make. This leads to Kennesaw State being in the top 15 in the country in % of points coming from the free throw line (23.3%). Additionally, they are one of the worst teams in the country at not turning the ball over. They are terrible at not getting their shot blocked and not committing unforced TOs. Since they can’t shoot and turn the ball over so much, they can’t get assists.
    • FGCU isn’t much better on offense, ranking 310th or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective FG%, TO%, FT Rate, 3P%, and steal %.
    • When two incompetent offensive teams play, you take the under and the slightly more competent team.
  • UT Martin @ SE Missouri O152
    • UT Martin Games
      • 74% of games this season have gone over 152, only 6 have not.
      • 100% of games this season w/ a total Under 153 have gone over by an average of 15.75 pts
      • Two-thirds of conference games have gone over
      • 81.8% of away games have gone over
      • Only 1 has gone under 152
      • 83.3% of conference away games have gone over
      • Avg Score Away – 76-89 = 165
      • Conf Games – 76-83 = 159

NBA 64-59 (0-2):

    • NOP -3 hosting Thunder
      • Pelicans have been insanely good at both ends of the floor with Zion on the court.
    • Celtics -2 hosting Clippers
      • No PatBev. I think that matters a lot.

Sprinkles 28-44 (1-0):

    • Ark Little Rock ML @ Texas St
      • Little Rock is one of the best teams in the country ATS. They are 3.5 pt road dogs in this game, so I will sprinkle them to win this game.
    • Colorado ML @ Oregon
      • In the only ranked vs ranked matchup of the night, it could happen.
    • Fliers ML @ Panthers (NHL)

MikePick2 9-15 (1-0):

  • Parlay: +134
    • South Alabama ML hosting ULL
    • USC ML hosting Washington