Free Money Friday Every Day: Conference Tournament Tuesday

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 3-2:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • IPFW +2.5 – they were terrible.
  • BYU -4 – I am still very surprised that BYU lost this game.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 259-260-10 (3-2):

North Dakota vs North Dakota State:

  • Spread: North Dakota State -6 (now -6)
  • Total: 143.5 (now 137)

Setting the Scene:

It’s the Summit League Conference Tournament Championship! North Dakota is the 6-seed. They beat South Dakota (#3) and IFPW (#7) to get to the final. North Dakota State is the 1-seed. They shared the regular season championship with South Dakota State. They beat Denver (#8) and Oral Roberts (#4) to get to the final.

Trends:

The higher seeded teams are 3-3 ATS in the Summit League Conference Tournament this season. Only one of the six games has gone over the total.

Conference Tournament Averages:

UND NDSU
Points Scored 73.5 73
Points Allowed 63.5 69
Total Points 137 142

On the Court:

The two teams have played twice already this season. They split the previous two games with the home team winning each game. North Dakota has been much better at defense at home this season, and their offense has only been slightly better. North Dakota State has been the opposite. Their defense has been slightly better on the road, and their offense has been better at home. Most teams perform similarly to the way North Dakota State does.

In the conference tournament, North Dakota has played better than North Dakota State. They have better numbers in almost every statistical category.

The Fighting Hawks have really stepped up their play in the conference tournament. Strange enough, North Dakota State has been worse. Check out this comparison between their conference stats and their tournament stats.

ADJOE ADJDE EFG% EFGD% TOR% TORD% ORB% DRB% FTR FTRD 2P% 2P%D 3P% 3P%D
UND C 101.6 108.5 51.8 53.8 17.7 16.2 24.2 23.1 39.7 30.5 54.2 52.9 32.4 37.3
UND T 103.3 94.7 52 42.1 15.4 12.5 21.7 22.1 54.5 30 42.1 42.5 43.2 27.7
NDSU C 105.8 101.8 54.7 49.9 15.2 13.8 20.8 17.8 33.4 29.6 55.5 50.2 35.8 32.8
NDSU T 102.8 102.7 44.4 47.3 10.3 13.2 26.3 27.4 47.4 15.4 37.1 49 37 26.9

 

Analysis:

I’m concerned that North Dakota’s improvement is unsustainable. Their defense has stepped up in a MAJOR way, but one of those games was against IPFW. They also are forcing fewer turnovers, so it isn’t like that is the reason the defensive numbers have improved so much. IPFW only scored 59 points; they could’ve just had a very off day.

Also, North Dakota is shooting 12% worse from 2P-range and 11% better from 3P-range. We’ve seen teams get hot and that carry them through the tournament in the past, but am I willing to rely on them being hot in this one game setting? Especially since the team they are playing is very, very good at defending the arc.

The Fighting Hawks have also gotten to the FT line incredibly frequently in the tournament, but North Dakota State has been very good at not fouling all season. The Bison have been absolutely fantastic at not sending opponents to the FT line in the conference tournament.

Based on the other two games that these teams have played; I do think this will be a close game. I don’t think North Dakota will win. I just don’t trust this incredible two-game run they’ve been on. I expect some regression across the board.

I was going to take the Under in this game until I saw that it had dropped all the way to 137. I will be shocked if both of these teams don’t reach 70 points.

The Pick: UND +6 & Over 137

Northeastern vs Hofstra:

Setting the Scene:

The Colonial Athletic Association Conference Championship!

Trends:

Northeastern has covered 43.8%. Hofstra has covered 75% (1st).

On the Court:

Analysis:

This is a Poor ATS vs Good ATS game. We are 24-12 in these games.

The Pick: Northeastern +1.5

Alabama State @ Southern U:

Setting the Scene:

It’s the first round of the SWAC Tournament. It’s a home game for Southern because they are the higher seed. They are the 2-seed, and Alabama State is the 7.

Trends:

Alabama State has covered 50%. Southern U has covered 73.1% (2nd).

Analysis:

This is a Poor ATS vs Good ATS game. We are 24-12 in these games.

The Pick: Alabama State +9.5

NBA 83-83-1 (0-0):

Grizzlies -2.5 hosting Magic:

I just think the Grizzlies are the superior team, so I’m happy to take them to win by 3 at home.

Mavs -3 @ Spurs:

Both teams are super banged up right now, so I will take the team that has the best healthy player: Kristaps & the Mavs.

Sprinkles 47-78 (0-0):

MikePick2 17-23 (0-0):

Parlay +107

  • UNC ML vs Virginia Tech
  • NDSU ML vs UND

Picks Recap:

  • UND +6
  • UND/NDSU O137
  • NE +1.5
  • ALST +9.5
  • Grizzlies -2.5
  • Mavs -3
  • MP2: UNC ML + NDSU ML