As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Sticher, or espnau.com.
Weekend 19-17 +3.09u:
Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.
It’s Monday, so we are looking back at the Weekend (Fri, Sat, Sun) and the past week (Mon-Sun). I’m not going to go through each pick, but I am going to look at what went well and what did not.
- 40-31 +8.86u
- 10-4 (+5.1u) in the Summit League
- 27-12 (69% +12.13u) in College Basketball
- 8-10 (+0.1u) in Sprinkles
- 2-4 on MikePick2
You can see, I had an incredible week. It was one of the best weeks that I have ever had in basketball betting. It was the best week of the season, by far in College Basketball. It looks like I need to be more selective in my ML Sprinkles because I don’t have to be even 50% to be in the positive units range. A two game swing here or there could change a lot. Also, it wasn’t a great week for the MikePick2. Maybe I need to change what I’m looking for in games that I pick for the MikePick2.
So let’s take what we learned and apply it to this week. We will keep the Quality over Quantity mantra that we had last week because it seemed to work pretty well. Also, the extra research into games seems to be paying off as well. Also, I still don’t forgive Oral Roberts.
Today’s Picks (Weekend Record):
NCAAB 219-218-7 (11-6 +3.6u):
A solid weekend and a very good week got us over 50% for the season. A number we have been chasing since I changed my tracking metrics a few weeks ago. I am elated. Now, we are gunning for that 52% mark. Last week, I picked 39 college basketball games. If I pick 38 games this week, I will have picked 475 on the season. In order to get to the 52% goal, I will have to have won 247 out of 475 games. So, this week’s goal is to go 28 of 38. Last week, we went 27 of 39, so it is definitely doable; however, it will not be easy. We’re attempting to follow up a 69% week with a 73.68% week. Let’s do this. Time to start out with a 2-0 day. Here are the picks:
- Illinois -13.5 hosting Nebraska
- Illinois is 5-2 in conference home games. Nebraska is 0-7 in conference road games.
- That has nothing to do with the spread, but it makes you wonder why Nebraska has been so putrid on the road this season.
- Well, they can’t defend, rebound, or get to the free throw line. Those are 3 major things that help you win on the road.
- Illinois has struggled to score at home during conference play, but they have made up for it with incredible defense and rebounding. Also, they don’t foul. Kofi Cockburn, Illinois’ dominant 7-footer, should be able to do whatever he wants against a way overmatched Nebraska front court.
- West Virginia -5.5 @ Texas
- West Virginia has lost 4/5. They have lost 5 road games in a row and 6/7 road games in Big12 play. The offense is the issue, as it usually is when teams are struggling in road games. The defense has still been the typical very good West Virginia defense.
- Texas had lost 4 in a row before wins over TCU and Kansas St, two of the worst teams in the Big12. Texas is just not very good, AND they lost probably their best player for the season. Without Jericho Sims, the Longhorns will probably get dominated inside by West Virginia’s very good frontcourt.
- I think West Virginia is probably undervalued here due to their road struggles in conference this season, and Texas’s back to back wins. Remember, WV beat UT by 38 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers desperately need a win, and I think they get it tonight.
NBA 69-66 (4-5):
It was a weird week in the NBA with no games until Thursday, and everyone coming off a week off for the All-Star Break.
- Magic +4 @ Nets
- This is a Road Dog off ATS Loss play. I like it a lot with the Nets recently losing Kyrie for the season. I know that they are used to playing without him, but they still aren’t very good. The Magic aren’t very good either. I think this should be a very close game, so I will happily take the Magic +4.
- Heat -6 @ Cavs
- We went 2-4 fading tanking teams last week, but I am confident that number will turn around in no time. I don’t have as much faith in the Interim Coach Bump for the Cavs now that some time has passed, and the Heat know they have to start playing better coming into the playoff stretch.
- 76ers -8.5 hosting the Hawks
- The 76ers are the most bizarre team in the NBA. They are incredible at home and against good teams. They are terrible on the road and against bad teams. It is very, very strange. For this game, I expect the 76ers to cover. They have been one of the best teams in the league at home, and the Hawks are terrible on the road, only covering 33% of road games on the season. This seems like a game that Trae Young goes for 45 in a double digit loss.
Sprinkles 38-60 (3-5)
- Louisville ML @ FSU
- Louisville is #11, and they are going on the road to take on a Florida State team that is quietly ranked #6. The spread on this game is FSU -2.5. That means that the oddsmakers consider Louisville the better team, but FSU is playing at home. Usually, home court advantage is between 2 and 5 points. Florida State’s should be above 3.5.
- I look at that think there must be value on sprinkling who oddmakers consider the better team.
MikePick2 14-20 (2-1):
- There’s not one tonight. I don’t like the numbers. Sorry.