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Free Money Friday Every Day: ORU…I hate you

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 7-4:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Oral Roberts -6.5 @ Denver – They lost by 4 in OT. 100-96. Coming into this game, Denver was 1-11 in conference play, and they had lost 18 of their last 19 games. Oral Roberts gave up ONE HUNDRED (100) POINTS. Oral Roberts allowed Denver to shoot 61.4% from inside the arc, and Denver made 25 out of 29 FTs (86.2%). Denver out-rebounded Oral Roberts 42-37, but they turned the ball over 16 times! Those 16 turnovers meant that Denver turned the ball over on 19% of their possessions, that is so high. The worst part? Oral Roberts was up 67-55 with 9 and half minutes left in the game, AND they were up 88-83 with SIXTEEN (16) (8*2) (4*4) SECONDS left in the game. Their win probability was 98.6%. Like I said, they lost by 4 in OT. Their loss cost me a perfect week in the Summit League and last night’s MikePick2. I am so angry at the Golden Eagles; I can barely put it into words. They lost a game in which they scored NINETY-SIX (96) (48*2) (32*3) (24*4) (16*6) (12*8) POINTS! 96! Look at this win probability chart from KenPom:

  • MEM -1 @ SAC – They lost by 4. I didn’t watch this game, so I am not sure what I should be angry about, not gonna lie.
  • MIA -6.5 @ ATL – They lost by 5. Trae Young only scored 50, so it’s hard to be too mad about this one. Oh wait, JUST KIDDING. MAYBE DON’T LET THE OTHER TEAM’S BEST PLAYER SCORE 50 POINTS IN A GAME FOR WHICH YOU HAD THREE FULL DAYS TO PREPARE. THE HAWKS HAVE ONE GOOD PLAYER AND A BUNCH OF OTHER REALLY YOUNG GUYS THAT MIGHT BE GOOD BUT ARE JUST ALRIGHT RIGHT NOW. STOP THE ONE GOOD PLAYER. Sorry, I am still very angry with Oral Roberts.

All things considered (I hate you, Oral Roberts), yesterday was a great day. I am on fire right now. Since Monday, I am 24-13. I went 9-1 in Summit League games this week (not counting the portion of the MikePick2 because I consider that 1 MikePick2 lost not a loss on each portion of the MikePick2). Since the first Monday in February (the 3rd), I am 80-76. Let’s keep it rolling.


Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 208-212-7 (6-1 (freaking Oral Roberts)):

  • Penn -2 @ Dartmouth
    • Dartmouth can’t score. They rank 300th or worse in points per game, adjusted efficiency, offensive rebound %, FT rate, and free throw %. Penn’s defense is actually pretty good. They are 1st in the Ivy League in opponent effective FG% and opponent 2P%; 2nd in the Ivy League in defensive efficiency, opponent FT rate, and opponent FT%; and 3rd in opponent 3P%. That basically boils down to this:
      • Penn’s defense restricts the scoring ability of their opponents by not allowing them to make shots anywhere on the floor, not fouling, and, on the rare occasions they do foul, not fouling good free throw shooters. This means that Penn probably isn’t great defensively inside.
    • If one team can’t score, it will probably be hard for them to win. That’s called analysis people.

NBA 66-63 (1-2):

  • Pacers -6.5 @ NYK
    • The Knicks are what we call a team that is tanking. We are going to continue Fade Tanking Teams even though we lost 2 out of 3 doing so last night.
  • Mavs -4 @ Magic
    • The Mavs are just the better team in this game. The Magic are 8-18-2 ATS this season as underdogs and 10-17-1 ATS at home. They have really struggled against teams that are better than they are, and they have struggled to cover at home.The Mavs are 18-8 straight-up and 18-6-2 ATS on the road. They have been killing it away from American Airlines Center this season. Also, Luka.
  • Nuggets +2 @ OKC
    • The Nuggets are getting Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury, and they are currently own the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. Denver is 9-0 against division opponents this season and have the 3rd best ranking against division foes according to teamrankings.com.

Sprinkles 34-54 (1-0):

    • Saint Louis ML hosting VCU
    • St Peter’s PK @ Manhattan
      • For starters, St. Peter’s has covered the spread in 17 out of their 24 games this season. That is 70.8% and T-6th in the country. They are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog, 9-3 ATS as the away team, 11-4 ATS in conference games, and 5-2 ATS in conference road games. Manhattan, on the other hand, is 5-4 ATS at home, 3-3 ATS as a home favorite, and 7-7 ATS in conference games. So, they are almost exactly average.
      • Peter’s is relatively great defensively. They are #1 in the MAAC in efficiency, effective FG%, 2P%, and block% defensively. They are 2nd in opponent turnover %, 3rd in steal%, and 4th in opponent 3P%. That bodes well against a Manhattan offense that is 9th in the MAAC in efficiency, effective FG%, and 3P%, offensively. They are 11th in the MAAC in FT% at a staggeringly low 59.7%. If this is a close game, St. Peter’s should have an edge.
      • On the other side of the ball, this should actually be a good match-up. The Peacock’s offense is pretty good, but they turn the ball over way too much. The Jaspers’ defense is between pretty good and good, but they struggle to limit offensive rebounds, to not foul, and to defend the 3-point arc.
      • This game opened at St Peter’s +1.5, and it has moved to a PK. I was going to take St. Peter’s +1.5 and sprinkle them on the ML, so I will only sprinkle them as a PK, now.
    • Cavaliers ML @ Wizards
      • The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and I expect the Cavs to get a bit of an interim coach bump here. Give me the Cavs trying to prove they were correct for all wanting their coach fired.
    • Nuggets ML @ OKC
      • See above.

MikePick2 12-19 (0-1 (O. R. A. L. R. O. B. E. R. T. S.)):

    • Parlay: +135
      • Mavs ML @ Magic
      • Pelicans ML @ Blazers
        • No Dame for the Blazers tonight.

Free Money Friday Every Day: I’m Hot

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 10-6:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • AUB -3 @ UGA – lost by 10
  • RUTG -1 hosting Michigan – lost by 8
  • DePaul +4.5 hosting NOVA – lost by 20, fade the public in big conferences
  • BUT ML @ HALL – lost by 2 on a layup with 0.4 seconds left
  • TCU ML @ UT – lost by 14
  • SC ML @ MSST – lost by 3
  • Both parts of the MikePick2 lost.
  • So, if you take out the 5 sprinkles, I won 8 of my 11 picks. I am on fire.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 203-211-7 (8-3):

  • North Florida +9 @ Liberty
    • UNF has covered the spread in 76.9% of their games this season. That is the best rate in the country. Additionally, they are 8-1 ATS as an underdog, 12-2 ATS on the road, 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, and 11-2 ATS in conference play. Their worst applicable ATS trend is that they are 11-5 ATS after a win.
    • Liberty has not been nearly as good at covering the spread, only doing so in 54.2% of their games this season. They are 12-9 ATS after a win, 12-10-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-6-1 ATS at home and as a home favorite, and only 4-8 ATS in conference play.
    • Normally, that would be enough for me, but since the line is so high, I decided to dig a little deeper. These two teams are the best in their conference. It is a strength on strength match-up. UNF is #1 in the Atlantic Sun in 7 out of 10 offensive categories, including efficiency, every shooting percentage, and turnover percentage. Liberty’s defense is #1 in the ASUN in 6 out of 10 defensive categories, including efficiency, opponent effective FG percentage, opponent turnover percentage, and opponent offensive rebound percentage. UNF plays at the second fastest tempo in conference while Liberty plays at the 9th
    • Liberty’s offense is 2nd in the ASUN in efficiency, but they trail UNF by over 9 points per 100 possessions. That is a lot. UNF’s defense is not nearly as good as their offense, but they should be good enough at that end to hang around in this game. They don’t turn their opponents over and don’t limit offensive rebounds, but Liberty rarely ever turns the ball over or gets offensive rebounds anyway. Scottie James gets a lot of offensive rebounds for Liberty, but no one else really does. UNF is also the best team in the conference at defending the 3-point line.
    • I think Liberty will probably win this game because of UNF’s deficiencies on defense, but I do think that the Osprey’s are good enough on offense to keep their team in the game.
  • Nebraska Omaha +2 @ IPFW & 5
    • I don’t understand either of these lines at all.
    • IPFW has the worst offense in the Summit League. They rank 7th, 8th, or 9th in every offensive category except offensive rebound percentage. There are 9 teams in the Summit League.
    • Omaha isn’t great, but they force a good number of turnovers which is important when you’re playing on the road.
    • IPFW has had ONE conference game go over 147 points, on Jan 18th against Oral Roberts. They gave up 92 points in that game. They have scored 75 points twice in conference play. 75 and 77. Both against W Illinois. W Illinois is 5-18 this season and 2-11 in conference. This game is going under.
  • Oral Roberts -6.5 @ Denver & 5
    • Summit League home teams have covered 5 out of 21 games in February for a whopping 23.81%. On the season, road teams in the Summit League have covered 55.93% of games. That continues tonight.
    • Oral Roberts has all of the qualities you look for in a road conference team:
    • They don’t turn the ball over
    • They shoot well from the FT line
    • They shoot pretty well from 3 (35.1% in conference play)
    • They turn over their opponents
    • Also, Denver fouls too much and fouls good FT shooters (80% against)
    • Denver has lost 7 in a row and 12 out of 13 conference games. They have allowed 78 points or more in 10 conference games.
  • Iowa -2.5 hosting Ohio State
    • Iowa is covering by an average of 6.86 points per game at home in BIG10 play.

NBA 65-61:

  • MIA -6.5 @ ATL
  • MEM -1 @ SAC
  • HOU -10 @ GSW

Sprinkles 33-54 (2-3):

  • Nebraska Omaha ML @ IPFW

MikePick2 12-18 (0-1):

  • Parlay: +130
    • Iowa ML
    • Oral Roberts ML

Free Money Friday Every Day: 8 Games, 11 Picks, 5 Sprinkles

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 3-4:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Ole Miss +1.5 & ML – lost by 3, and they were just putrid in the closing minutes. Tyree had an open 3 to send the game into OT and missed.
  • OU +3 – they lost by 11. I knew this was going to happen. I told y’all yesterday that if I bet on OU they would get killed.
  • PSU ML – Penn State put on a master class on how to lose a close game at home.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 195-208-7 (2-2):

  • Texas A&M +10.5 @ Alabama – Opened BAMA -11.5, now 10.5
    • ATS Records: TAMU – 41.7%; Bama – 72%
    • I am 17-7 betting Poor ATS teams on the road in a conference game against Good ATS teams.
    • Bama was on a 4-game losing streak ATS from Jan 25th to Feb 4th and have now covered 3 in a row. They are back to their covering ways.
    • This is going to be a fascinating game between two teams that play opposite styles of basketball. Alabama has one of the fastest tempos in the country. TAMU plays the slowest of any team in the SEC. Bama relies on offense and shooting while TAMU relies on defense and getting to the FT line.
  • LA Monroe +7 @ Arkansas St – Opened ARST -8, now -7/7.5
    • ATS Records: LA Monroe – 40.9%; Arkansas St – 68%
    • I am 17-7 betting Poor ATS teams on the road in a conference game against Good ATS teams.
    • Arkansas St is not good defensively. They rank in the bottom half of the Sun Belt in every defensive category except one, and they are in the bottom 2 in defensive efficiency, opponent effective FG%, opponent offensive rebound %, opponent FT rate, and opponent 2P%.
  • DePaul +4.5 hosting Villanova – Opened NOVA -5, now -4.5
    • I am 3-5 fading the public in major conference games this season.
    • DePaul has only gotten 15% of bets (2:33 pm central). That is comfortably below the 25% threshold that we like.
    • Because of the low percentage and Villanova’s name brand, I am comfortable locking this pick in now.
  • Cal +6 @ Wazzou – Opened Cal +5, now consensus is +5.5/6
    • Cal has received 17% of bets as of 2:43 pm central time.
    • I am 3-5 fading the public in major conference games this season.
    • Since 17 is not close to 25, I went ahead and pulled the trigger on this one, also. When I looked a few hours ago, Cal had gotten 22% of bets. The fact that the number has gotten smaller also makes me feel like I can bet it now.
  • SDSU -3.5 @ UND & O149 – Opened SDKS -4.5, now -3.5/Opened at 151, now 150
    • This is another one of those lines that I just do not understand. South Dakota State is the best team in the Summit League and not just by record. KenPom has 10 advanced stats for offense and defense. South Dakota State is #1 in the Summit League in 5 offensive and 5 defensive categories. They are 2nd in two other defensive categories.
    • The Jackrabbits are below average at 3 offensive and 3 defensive things. On offense, they turn the ball over an above-average amount and have the ball stolen from them at a conference high rate. They also rank 7th out of 9 in FT shooting %; however, they make 73.5% of their FTs which really isn’t bad. It would rank in the mid-80s nationally if they had done it all season. They have been better in conference play than over the season. On defense, they are below average at turning over their opponents, steal %, and opponent offensive rebound percentage. So really, they are below average at 1 offensive thing and 2 defensive things. It just so happens that they are dead last in the conference at those things: getting the ball stolen from them (and thus TO%), opponent offensive rebound percentage (so defensive rebounding), and stealing the ball from the other team (and thus opponent TO%) (it is worth noting that they are #1 in block %, so they generate turnovers that way).
    • The issue for North Dakota is that they aren’t built to take advantage of those few flaws. The Fighting Hawks have been slightly above average at forcing turnovers during conference play, exactly average (5th out of 9) at offensive rebounding, and way below average (8th) in TO%.
    • These two teams played on Jan 15th in Brookings. South Dakota State was a 7-point favorite. They won 87-66.
    • While I don’t think that the Jackrabbits will win this game by 20, I do think they will win rather easily. I would be remiss not to mention that South Dakota State is tied for 3rd in the country at 19-7 ATS (73.1%) this season.
    • Also, North Dakota has only had 2 conference games go under 149 points, so I will take the over.
  • NDSU +1.5 @ SDAK & O149.5 – Opened SDAK -1.5, now 1.5/Opened 151, now 149.5
    • This is a game between the current #2 and #3 teams in the Summit League. The Bison are 10-2 in conference play, and the Coyotes are 9-4.
    • The two teams are very similar. Neither team turns the ball over, turns their opponents over, gets offensive rebounds, or allows their opponents to get offensive rebounds. Both teams are very good offensively, ranking in the top-3 of the league in efficiency, effective FG%, 3P%, and 2P%.
    • The reason I am on North Dakota State in this game are as follows:
    • South Dakota is the worst team in the Summit League at defending the 3-point line where the Bison shoot over 35%.
    • North Dakota State has had a top-2 defense in conference play, and they thrive at not fouling and not letting opponent score inside the 3-point arc (opponents have shot 48.9% from 2P range, #1 in SL).
    • Dave Richman’s squad’s only liability on defense are that they don’t turn their opponents over, but South Dakota rarely turns the ball over anyway.
    • On the other hand, Todd Lee’s Coyotes’ squad only gets offensive rebounds 16.8% of the time. That is last in the Summit League, and the Bison are the best team in the conference at limiting offensive rebounds.
    • This game will probably be a dog fight right down to the end. That favors North Dakota State because South Dakota is 333rd nationally in bench minutes. God forbid this game go to overtime because the Coyotes will be gassed.
    • North Dakota State has had 8 out of 12 conference games get to 150 or above. South Dakota has had 10 out of 13 conference games and 12 of their last 14 games get to at least 150 total points. I will take the over.
  • Rutgers -1 hosting Michigan – Opened RUTG -1, now -2.5
    • Strength on Strength match-up. Michigan’s offense is one of the best in the Big10 in everything except FT rate, offensive rebounding, and 3P%. Rutgers defense is one of the best in the Big10 in everything except FT rate and opponent FT % which means they foul too much and usually foul good FT shooters.
    • On the other side of the ball, neither team is very good. They have both been between mediocre and bad at almost everything during conference play. The only thing Rutgers has been elite at is not getting their shots blocked. The Wolverines haven’t been elite at anything.
    • I’ll take the Big10 team at home because Big10 home teams not named Nebraska or Northwestern have won 69 (nice) out of 87 games (79.31%). Nebraska and Northwestern are both terrible at basketball this season and are a combined 3-11 at home. They are the only two teams in the conference without a winning home record. Three Big10 are undefeated at home during conference play: Maryland, Iowa, and, you guessed it, RUTGERS. I don’t see that changing tonight.
  • AUB -3 @ UGA & U150 – Opened AUB -2.5, now -4/4.5
    • There is no way to sugarcoat how lost Auburn’s defense looked without Isaac Okoro on Saturday against Mizzou, especially in the first half, or how bad Auburn was from behind the 3-point arc (1-17 5.9%). That performance makes this a must-win for Auburn if they want to stay in the race for the regular season SEC title.
    • Here are the bright sides for the Tigers:
    • It’s almost impossible for them to shoot as poorly from beyond the arc as they did against Mizzou.
    • In the first Auburn/Georgia game, it was Allen Flanigan who defended future lottery pick Anthony Edwards for most of the game. Edwards had one of his worst games of the season, shooting 6-15 (2-9 from 3) from the floor and 4-11 at the FT line with 3 assists and 3 turnovers.
    • Georgia’s defense has been one of the worst, if not the worst, during conference play. They are last in the SEC in opponent effective FG% and opponent 2P% and 10th in opponent offensive rebound % and opponent 3P%. This is a great game for Auburn to get right offensively.
    • Georgia is not good at offense either. They turn the ball over too much and are almost as bad as Auburn at shooting 3-pointers. This is especially good since Auburn is 13th in the SEC allowing opponents to make 37% in conference play.
    • Auburn should have an advantage inside. Austin Wiley could have another big game if he stays out of foul trouble. Auburn has been better lately at getting the ball to their big man inside.
    • Georgia has scored 75 points or less in every SEC game except 3: vs Alabama (who plays no defense and plays at a ridiculously fast pace), @ Kentucky (I don’t understand this one), and vs Tennessee (mid-January when Tennessee was terrible). Auburn has had 6 of their last 7 games go over 150; however, they played overtimes in 4 of their last 6 games, managed a respectable 73 points (5.9% from 3) against a decent Mizzou defense (without Okoro), and scored an average of 67 points/game in regulation away from Auburn Arena this season.

Sprinkles 31-51 (1-1):

  • Butler ML @ Seton Hall
    • Butler has road conference wins over St. John’s and Providence. The Big East continues to cannibalize itself.
  • North Dakota State ML @ South Dakota
    • See Above
  • TCU ML @ Texas
    • Both of these teams are not good. I think TCU has every chance to win this game.
  • Providence ML @ Georgetown
    • Providence has road conference wins against DePaul, Marquette, and Butler.
  • South Carolina ML @ Mississippi State
    • South Carolina NEEDS this win to try to get that ever important 4th seed in the SEC Tournament. Frank Martin might just terrify his team into winning this game.

MikePick2 12-17 (0-1):

  • Parlay: +136
    • Rutgers ML hosting Michigan
    • Minnesota ML hosting Indiana

Free Money Friday Every Day: Quality over Quantity

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 1-0:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

BUT I WENT 1-0 YESTERDAY! LET’S. GO.


Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 193-206-7 (1-0):

  • Baylor @ OU +3
    • I am terrified of this game, but I am going to Fade the Public in Big Conferences on this game. I am 3-4 doing it this year, but the system has won 4 in a row and 6 of 8. I recognize that very recent performance is not indicative of future success, but the system has won at 57%, so let’s do it.
    • Right now, OU has only gotten 21% of the bets.
    • Again, I am terrified of this game. I have seen some conflicting predictions. I have read conflicting opinions. I saw someone who has this predicted as a 1 point spread and someone who says Baylor wins by 4. Because of this fear, I am going to wait until like 7:45 to place this bet if Baylor has still gotten less than 25% of bets.
    • If I’m talking myself into betting OU, here are the things I’m looking at:
      • OU is 3rd in the country in opponent Ft rate. They do not foul.
      • OU is 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is only 5th in the Big12.
      • OU is 44th in opponent 2P%, and Baylor is 232nd in 2P%.
      • OU is 1st in the Big12 in TO%. They don’t turn the ball over.
      • Baylor isn’t a particularly good defensive rebounding team, ranking only 248th in opponent offensive rebounding %, but OU doesn’t get offensive rebounds. They rank dead last in the Big12.
      • OU is 1st in the Big12 in FT% and block%. They are 3rd in 3P% and 4th in 2P%.
      • MaCio Teague might not be playing for Baylor. He is one of their best players.
      • OU should have a size advantage.
      • Baylor plays Kansas on Saturday.
    • If I’m talking myself out of betting OU, here is what I’m looking at:
      • Baylor is 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency
      • Baylor is 4th in offensive rebounding %, and OU is 107th in opponent offensive rebounding %.
      • OU doesn’t foul but Baylor is 208th in FT Rate. They don’t rely on going to the line to get points.
      • Baylor is 77th in the country, shooting over 35% from 3. Baylor allows opponents to make 1/3 of their threes. In conference play, Baylor has made 32.6% and OU has allowed 33.9%.
      • Baylor’s defense is 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 6th in opponent effective FG%, 28th in TO%, and 5th in 2P%.
      • Baylor is used to playing at a size disadvantage. They start 3 guys 6-foot-3 or smaller, and their center is 6-9. Baylor keeps winning games through hard work and effort. That is why their offensive rebounding and defensive numbers are so good.
  • Ole Miss +1.5 @ Mizzou
    • Ole Miss is going to win this game. Mizzou doesn’t have the ability to score with the Rebels, or the size to dominate them inside. Ole Miss should’ve beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena on Saturday before falling short at the end. Ole Miss led or was within one possession until the closing minutes of that game. And Breein Tyree had a normal game by his standards, only 19 and 5. I expect Tyree, Shuler and company to come out looking for blood. They still have a shot at a good finish in the SEC, and they have been dominating the other teams around them in the rankings.
    • Ole Miss Key Recent Results (Tyree Points):
      • L by 4 vs LSU on 1/18 (36)
      • W by 10 @ UGA on 1/25 (20)
      • L by 1 vs AUB in 2OT on 1/28 (8)
      • L by 10 @ LSU on 2/1 (9)
      • W by 14 vs SC on 2/5 (38)
      • W by 17 vs UF on 2/8 (23)
      • W by 25 vs MSU on 2/11 (40)
      • L by 5 @ UK on 2/15 (19)
    • I get that it’s easy to look at those results and say, “They went 4-4 in those games. That’s not impressive.” You’re not wrong about the record; however, in 4 games against by far the Top-3 teams in the SEC, they lost by a combined 20 points, and the Kentucky loss was much closer than the 5-point finish. You can also see that Tyree’s points are like a bonus for Ole Miss. It’s very odd. Usually teams that are 13-12 with an elite scoring guard need that guard to put up big numbers for them to compete. Ole Miss does not. They hung with LSU, Auburn, and Kentucky when Tyree scored under 20 points. Against the other 10 teams in the SEC (i.e. not UK, LSU, AUB, or Ole Miss), Tyree has scored 26, 27, 18, 20, 38, 23, and 40. That is an average of 27.4 points. He’s also shooting an absurd 45% from 3-point range in conference play.
    • Missouri is 11th in the SEC in defensive efficiency during conference play. They rank dead last in opponent FT rate which should really benefit the Rebels since they shoot 75% from the FT line even though they rarely ever get there (they are last in FT rate during conference play).
  • UK +2.5 @ LSU & O145
    • I don’t understand this line at all.
    • Ashton Hagans defense > Skylar Mays offense
      • Hagans averages 2 steals/game and has tallied at least 1 steal in every game this season except the Auburn game during which he was in foul trouble the whole game and limited to 20 minutes before he fouled out. He is an elite defender. This should be a great match-up to watch.
    • Richards/Montgomery vs Watford/Days or Williams is going to be a war.
      • Richards is UK’s 6-11 Jr forward that has been dominating in recent weeks. Montgomery is a 6-10 So forward. Richards/Montgomery average 21 points and 15 rebounds per game and have effective FG%s of 65.7% and 51.7%, respectively. They add about 3 blocks per game on defense.
      • Watford is the Tigers’ tallest player at 6-9, but he is a forward. Days and Williams are both 6-6 and are also forwards. They will all be working inside which is one of the things that makes this battle so interesting. Watford/Days/Williams average about 40 points and about 21 rebounds per game. Williams shoots 3-pointers at 37.5% on the season.
      • It is going to be fascinating to see how Kentucky defends LSU.
    • Quickley and Maxey are going to be the difference in this game.
      • Quickley is UK’s leading scorer at 15 pts/game, and Maxey adds 14. Together, they add about 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals each game. Quickley is an elite shooter. He shoots 38.7% from behind the arc on the season, 43.1% from 3 in conference play, and over 90% from the FT line. Maxey does his damage inside the arc, with a 51.5 eFG% and 55.4 TS% in conference play. I don’t know how LSU defends the two of them. LSU will walk out Ja’vonte Smart to combat the two. Smart is a very good player (12.5/3.2/4.1), but he can’t do it alone.
    • The Bench
      • LSU doesn’t really have one. They only go about 3 players into the bench, and none of their bench players offer much in terms of offensive production. The bench averages around 13.89/9.35/1.95. They play 22.4% of minutes which is 328th in the country.
      • Similarly, UK goes 4 players into their bench, and those players average 16.42/11.21/1.62. They play 26.4% of minutes, 279th.
    • Upside for LSU
      • They don’t foul very much, which is good because UK is 6th in the country in FT shooting %. UK won’t turn them over; they rank last in the SEC in opponent TO%. UK isn’t great at limiting 2nd chance opportunities, and LSU ranks #1 in the SEC at offensive rebound %.
    • Upside for UK
      • The only thing LSU’s defense has been good at during conference play is not fouling. LSU ranks 12th or worse in defensive efficiency, opponent effective FG%, opponent TO%, and opponent 3P%.

Sprinkles 30-50:

  • Ole Miss ML
  • UK ML

MikePick2 12-16 (3 in a row):

  • Parlay +108
    • Penn State ML hosting Illinois
    • Wisconsin ML hosting Purdue

Free Money Friday Every Day: Just One Pick

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Weekend 12-13-1:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

Today’s Picks (Weekend Record):

NCAAB 192-206-7 (11-8-1):

  • Xavier -1.5 @ St. John’s

Free Money Friday Every Day: Slim Pickings

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 5-9-1:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Hampton +5 @ Campbell & O150.5 – Hampton scored 49 points. Their lowest of the season.
  • FGCU @ KENN U126.5 – 128.
  • JAC +9 @ UNF – System had been 17-6. Can’t win them all.
  • WIN -4.5 @ GWB – I said I hate betting on them, and sure enough they lost
  • NOP -3 hosting OKC – Zion had a massive night. It was like they didn’t want to win.
  • UTM @ SEMO O152 – 146. That’s 3 unders in a row for UTM. I cannot believe it.
  • Austin Peay pushed.
  • Lost both Sprinkles but won the MikePick2.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record)

There’s no NBA action tonight, and it is a very small NCAAB spread with no big name programs playing. Luckily, I love the Summit League.

NCAAB 181-197-5 (2-6-1):

  • Brown +7 @ Penn
    • Brown – 43.8%; Penn – 66.7%
    • The team that is poor covering the spread should be undervalued on the road in a conference game against a team that has been good against the spread.
  • North Dakota State -12.5 hosting IPFW & U139
    • Betting Trends
      • ATS – NDSU – 54.5%; IPFW – 43.5%
      • NDSU has lost 1 home game all season, to Utah Valley before Thanksgiving, but they are 2-3 ATS in home conference games.
      • IPFW has only won 3 road games all season. 5-8 ATS on the road. 4-6 ATS as road underdog. 2-2 ATS as road dog in conference.
      • NDSU has had 4/5 conference home games go over, and one game go under 139.
      • IPFW has had 1 out of 5 road conference games go under 139
    • On Court
      • Bison Ball
        • Season Summary
          • They play very slow and rarely ever turn the ball over (12th). They are very good at shooting free throws and 2 pointers, but they do not get offensive rebounds (325th). IPFW’s defense is good at one thing, defensive rebounding, and pretty good at not fouling. The NDSU offense should have their way.
        • Conference Summary
          • Things changed quite a bit for both teams during conference play. The Bison are the best team in the Summit League shooting inside the arc and at the free throw line. They are top 3 in the league in efficiency, effective FG%, and 3P%. The IPFW defense has stepped up also. They are top-2 in the league at forcing turnovers, defensive rebounding, opponent FT % (#1), block %, and steal % (#1). That means that IPFW is forcing a lot of turnovers, limiting 2nd chance opportunities, and typically fouling bad free throw shooters. Where NDSU has a huge advantage in inside the 3-point arc where they are making 59% of their shots, and IPFW is allowing opponents to make 55.3% of shots.
      • IPFW Ball
        • Season Summary
          • Bison are very #1 in the nation at limiting offensive rebounds. They are incredibly bad at forcing turnovers and pretty darn bad at defending the 3-point shot. They also don’t foul very often at all. The IPFW offense turns the ball over a lot and is middle of the pack at shooting from distance and from inside the arc. They rarely get to the free throw line which is especially an issue since they only shoot a tick over 68%. I don’t know how IPFW takes advantage of the NDSU defense that really isn’t very good. I guess 3-point shooting, but typically teams are worse at shooting 3s on the road.
        • Conference Games Summary
          • Things go from bad to worse for IPFW when you only look at these two teams in conference play. NDST is top 2 in the Summit League in efficiency, opponent effective FG%, defensive rebounding (1st), opponent 3P%, and opponent 2P% (1st). The one deficiency of this defense during conference play is forcing turnovers. The IPFW ranks last or 2nd to last in efficiency, effective FG%, turnover % (last), FT rate, 2P%, and FT% (last). IPFW is 2nd in the Summit League in offensive rebounding. Basically, IPFW will not be able to take advantage of NDSU’s one big defensive flaw, and their one BIG offensive advantage will probably be mitigated by NDSU.
    • North Dakota State should be able to make shots, but IPFW has been quite good at not fouling and forcing turnovers. IPFW probably won’t be able to make shots, and they turn the ball over a ton. The Bison should massacre the Mastodons, and since the Bison play so slow and the possibility of a lot of turnovers, I like the under.
  • South Dakota State -14.5 hosting Denver & O151.5
    • Betting Trends
      • ATS – SD State – 75% (3rd); Denver – 54.2%
      • South Dakota State has been a home favorite in 5 conference games. They covered in all 5.
      • Denver is 0-5 SU, but 4-1 ATS on the road in conference play. They have been an underdog in every game. They have been a double-digit dog 4 out of the 5 games and covered all 4.
      • South Dakota State has had 3 out of 5 home conf games go over. 2 went over 151.5.
      • Denver has had all 5 conference road games go OVER, and only 1 went under 151.5 (149).
    • On Court
      • Jackrabbits have the ball
        • Season Summary:
          • The Jackrabbits are a very efficient offensive team. They shoot incredibly well from inside the 3-point arc, making 56.4% of their shots which is 5th This will be a big issue for a Denver team that is one of the worst teams in the country at defending inside, allowing opponents to make 55.6% of their 2-point shots. Where Denver has an edge would be rebounding. They are a top-30 team in defensive rebounding, only allowing opponents to get 24% of potential offensive rebounds. Unfortunately for Denver, SD State doesn’t rely on offensive rebounds. They are a rather middle of the pack team at grabbing offensive boards. Basically, Denver allows their opponents to shoot well everywhere, to shoot incredibly well inside the arc, to get to the free throw line a lot, and to not turn the ball over. That does not bode against a very good, very efficient offense like South Dakota State’s.
        • Conference Play Summary:
          • San Diego State clearly has the best offensive in the Summit League during conference play, ranking #1 in efficiency, effective FG%, and 3P% (at a staggering 43.6%). They are 2nd in the league at 2P% at 58.8% and 3rd in offensive rebound % at 26.9%. The Denver defense has been pretty good during conference play, ranking in the top half of the Summit League in opponent effective FG%, opponent 3P%, opponent 2P%, opponent offensive rebound %, and steal %. Their main issue is that they foul a lot, and they foul good free throw shooters a lot. Expect the Jackrabbits play offense inside out, getting the ball inside and getting fouled or kicking out to knock down 3’s at their insane clip.
      • Pioneers have the ball
        • Season Summary
          • South Dakota State is only good in two places defensively: defending the 3-point arc and not fouling. They are very bad in one area: forcing turnovers. Unfortunately for Denver, their offense relies on getting to the free throw line a lot. They don’t shoot well from the free throw line, so they really need to get to the line often to make the trips worth it. They have been a top-45 team at getting to the free throw line but against a team that doesn’t send their opponents to line that could be a major issue. Denver also only shoots a middle-of-the-pack 33.1% from behind the arc, which tells me that they will probably struggle against a very good Jackrabbit defense at defending out there. Denver is a top-10 team at not getting their shots blocked, but South Dakota State doesn’t block many shots. It appears that Denver’s offensive flaws match up with South Dakota State’s defensive flaws, and their “strengths” either don’t mitigate South Dakota State’s strengths or don’t do anything to take advantage of South Dakota State’s flaws.
        • Conference Games Summary:
          • South Dakota State also has the best defense in the Summit League. They are #1 in the conference in efficiency, effective FG%, opponent FT rate, opponent 3P%, and block %. They are #2 in the conference in opponent 2P% and opponent FT% (this means on the rare occasion that they do foul, they foul bad FT shooters). It is worth noting that they are 9th in the league in turnover % and 8th in opponent offensive rebounding %. The only things that Denver’s offense is good at is getting to the free throw line, 3rd in the Summit League in FT rate, and block %. Their 5.1% block % is 1st in the Summit League. Just like when you look at the season numbers for both teams, you do not see anywhere where a strength of Denver is mitigating a strength for South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits aren’t going to put Denver at the line. I’m not sure how much it will matter that the Pioneers don’t get their shots blocked, and the Jackrabbits block a lot of shots.
    • South Dakota State should score at will if they can limit turnovers. The best game comparison when looking at this Denver team is when they played North Dakota State in Fargo on Jan 25th because North Dakota State and South Dakota State are very similar defensively. They were tied 41-41 with 13 mins left in the 2nd They lost the next 6 minutes by 16, going down 64-48, before losing the game 82-70. Denver let NDSU shoot 53% from 2-point range and almost 47% from 3. NDSU went to the line 32 times. South Dakota State should murder Denver. I’m going to take the over because I don’t think Denver is going to turn the ball over, so they should have opportunities to score.

Free Money Friday Every Day: I Forgot It’s Underdog Thursday

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As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 8-12-1:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

Yesterday, I had 7 tough losses.

  • Maine +7 – lost by 8
  • Auburn -7.5 – up by 16, up by 8 in OT, won by 4
  • Auburn/Bama U161.5 – I have to say, I did not anticipate an SEC record in 3 pointers from Bama
  • Loyola Illinois -8.5 – won by 7
  • POR +4 @ MEM – lost by 7; Dame got hurt.
  • Oral Roberts -7 – won by 4
  • South Dakota -15.5 – won by 13

So, 8-12-1 could’ve been something like 13-9 if a few bounces/injuries went my way, including the Rutgers +6 push.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record)

NCAAB 179-192-4 (6-10-1):

  • Jacksonville +9 @ North Florida
    • Poor ATS team, on the road, playing a conference opponent who has been tremendous ATS this season.
  • Austin Peay -3 hosting Murray State
    • ALL AUSTIN PEAY DOES IS COVER. JUMP ON THE PEAY TRAIN NOW.
  • Winthrop -4.5 @ Garner-Webb
    • I hate betting on Winthrop, but they keep covering.
  • Hampton +5 @ Campbell & O150.5
    • Hampton’s defense is incredibly bad. They rank 347th out of 353 in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s not all. They rank 312th or worse nationally in:
      • Opponent’s Effective FG %
      • Opponent’s Three Point %
      • Opponent’s Two Point %
      • Opponent’ FTA/FGA
      • Points Per Possession
      • Opponent’s Assists/Turnover
      • Opponent’s Off Rebounds %
    • All that means this: The Pirates can’t defend inside or outside the arc, foul too much, leave passing lanes wide open, and give offenses second chances on one in every three missed shots. The over has hit in 12 of their last 13 games.
    • Fortunately for Hampton, the Camels aren’t built to take advantage of the Pirates’ flaws. They don’t get to the line much, don’t rebound well at all, and don’t shoot threes any better than average. Hampton can cover this game.
  • Indiana -1.5 hosting Iowa
    • Iowa’s huge thing on offense is offensive rebounding. They are elite at it. Unfortunately for them, Indiana has been the best team during Big Ten play at preventing offensive rebounds. Iowa has not proven they can win on the road in the Big Ten. They are 1-4, only beating lowly Northwestern. Indiana on the other hand started Big Ten play 4-0 at home before dropping back to back games against Top-10 Maryland and Purdue. Expect a lot of fouls in this game, and I think Indiana will be able to win and cover with FTs late.
  • FGCU -5 @ Kennesaw St & U126.5
    • Kennesaw St is historically bad offensively. Check out these nationally ranked stats:
      • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 351st
      • Effective FG%: 353rd
      • Turnover %: 319th
      • 3P%: 352nd
      • 2P%: 353rd
      • Block%: 302nd
      • Non-Stl TO%: 323rd
      • 3PA/FGA: 335th
      • A/FGM: 347th
      • % of Total Points from FTs: 14th
    • Here’s a brief summary in paragraph form: Kennesaw St is the worst team in the country at shooting the ball. They are the second worst team in the country at shooting three-pointers and the worst at shooting two-pointers. To combat not being able to make three pointers, they rarely shoot them, instead favoring to take 2 pointers that they can’t make. This leads to Kennesaw State being in the top 15 in the country in % of points coming from the free throw line (23.3%). Additionally, they are one of the worst teams in the country at not turning the ball over. They are terrible at not getting their shot blocked and not committing unforced TOs. Since they can’t shoot and turn the ball over so much, they can’t get assists.
    • FGCU isn’t much better on offense, ranking 310th or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective FG%, TO%, FT Rate, 3P%, and steal %.
    • When two incompetent offensive teams play, you take the under and the slightly more competent team.
  • UT Martin @ SE Missouri O152
    • UT Martin Games
      • 74% of games this season have gone over 152, only 6 have not.
      • 100% of games this season w/ a total Under 153 have gone over by an average of 15.75 pts
      • Two-thirds of conference games have gone over
      • 81.8% of away games have gone over
      • Only 1 has gone under 152
      • 83.3% of conference away games have gone over
      • Avg Score Away – 76-89 = 165
      • Conf Games – 76-83 = 159

NBA 64-59 (0-2):

    • NOP -3 hosting Thunder
      • Pelicans have been insanely good at both ends of the floor with Zion on the court.
    • Celtics -2 hosting Clippers
      • No PatBev. I think that matters a lot.

Sprinkles 28-44 (1-0):

    • Ark Little Rock ML @ Texas St
      • Little Rock is one of the best teams in the country ATS. They are 3.5 pt road dogs in this game, so I will sprinkle them to win this game.
    • Colorado ML @ Oregon
      • In the only ranked vs ranked matchup of the night, it could happen.
    • Fliers ML @ Panthers (NHL)

MikePick2 9-15 (1-0):

  • Parlay: +134
    • South Alabama ML hosting ULL
    • USC ML hosting Washington

Auburn vs Alabama Game Preview

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Auburn hosts Alabama in Auburn Arena tonight. I did a deep dive into the game. This preview includes gambling stuff and not-gambling stuff. My betting picks for the game are at the end.

Recent Body of Work:

  • Auburn (21-2):
    • 6 game winning streak
    • 13-0 at home this season
    • 43-3 at home since the start of the 2018 season: 15-1 in 2018, 15-2 in 2019, 13-0 in 2020.
    • Just finished a brutal stretch of their schedule with four consecutive wins at Mississippi (83-82 2OT), home to Kentucky (75-66), at Arkansas (79-86 OT), and home to LSU (91-90 OT).
  • Alabama (13-10):
    • Has struggled lately, losing three of its past four games. The Crimson Tide barely won their last game at Georgia, winning 105-102 in overtime.
    • Struggled on the road in SEC play. The Crimson lost at Florida, Kentucky, and LSU with wins at Vanderbilt (without Nesmith) and the overtime escape at Georgia.
    • They are an impressive 16-7 ATS but only 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Notable Betting Trends

  • Auburn Win % ATS
    • 50% after a win
    • 50% with 2-3 days off (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday)
    • 50% in conference games
    • 50% with equal rest (both teams played Saturday)
    • 47.8% on the season
    • 46.2% at home & home favorite (haven’t been a dog at home)
    • 45% as favorite
  • Alabama Win % ATS
    • 80% as away underdog
    • 80% against ranked opponents
    • 75% after a win
    • 75% on the road
    • 75% as underdog
    • 70% in conference games
    • 69.6% on the season
    • 64.3% with 2-3 days off (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday)
    • 54.5% with equal rest
  • Auburn Over %
    • 71.4% with equal rest
    • 58.3% as home team & home favorite (haven’t been a dog at home)
    • 55.6% in conference games
    • 53.8% with 2-3 days off
    • 45.5% on the season
    • 45% after a win
    • 42.1% as favorite
    • Have had 3 out of 13 home games go over 160 points. One was in a 116-70 win over Cal St Northridge.
    • Have had 1 SEC games go over 160 in regulation: home vs Vandy. (Games against Ole Miss and LSU went over in OT).
  • Alabama Over %
    • 70% with equal rest
    • 69.2% with 2-3 days off
    • 63.6% on the season
    • 57.1% on the road
    • 55.6% in conference games
    • 54.5% after a win
    • 50% as away underdog
    • 42.9% as underdog
    • 0% against ranked oppenents
    • Have had 5 away games go over 160 points.
    • Have has 3 SEC games go over 160 points.

Key On-The-Court Things

  • Rebounding:
    • Auburn:
      • 14th overall in offensive rebounding
      • 1st in SEC play in defensive rebounding percentage
  • Turnovers:
    • Alabama:
      • Ranking 257th in defensive turnover percentage
        • 339th in block %
        • 330th in steal %
      • Average of 15.7 turnovers per game (326th overall)
  • 2P%:
    • The Tide’s SEC-best 54.3% 2P in conference play will be tested by Auburn’s imposing frontline of Isaac Okoro (12.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Anfernee McLemore (7.7 ppg, 1.4 bpg, 7.3 Blk% (67th in NCAA)), and 6-foot-11 senior center Austin Wiley (9.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 7.8 Blk% (54th in NCAA)).
  • Free Throws:
    • Auburn is 4th in the nation in FT Rate, and Alabama is 224th in defensive FT Rate.

Injuries, Key Match-ups, and Players to Watch

  • Auburn is remarkably healthy right now and should get a boost from the return of senior forward Danjel Purifoy (9.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) who missed the last game with the flu.
  • Alabama is still without junior 6-foot-7 forward Herbert Jones (9.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) due to a fractured wrist. Jones’s impact on the Tide’s home win over Auburn legitimately cannot be overstated. He was 4-7 shooting, 6-10 from the charity stripe, grabbed 12 rebounds, and played incredible lockdown defense – especially in the second half.
  • Austin Wiley vs Alex Reese
    • Austin Wiley, Auburn’s 6-foot-11 senior center should have his way inside against Alabama’s 6-foot-9 forward(?), but Reese had a game-changing impact on the first matchup between these two teams. His early 3 pointers pulled Wiley out of the paint where he doesn’t have the quickness to keep up with Reese off the dribble and can’t be as much of a factor on the defensive glass. That’s especially important since Wiley is 8th in the nation in defensive rebound % at 30.6%. On the other end of the court, Wiley should be able to have his way inside. Wiley is bigger and stronger than every player on this Alabama roster. However, Auburn has had major issues getting the ball to him inside. That may matter less in this game. Wiley is 7th in the country in offensive rebound % at 17%. Reese only had 3 rebounds in the first matchup between these two teams, all on the defensive end. Wiley had 7 offensive rebounds. Fun Fact: Wiley is Auburn’s top usage player, but he isn’t in Auburn’s top 5 in minutes.
  • J’Von McCormick/Samir Doughty vs John Petty Jr/Kira Lewis Jr
    • The backcourt match-up. Alabama’s combo of Petty (6’ 5”) and Lewis (6’ 3”) is long and fast, and it’s no secret they got the best of Auburn’s backcourt duo in the first game. McCormick (6’) had been struggling mightily during conference play, highlighted by 9 TOs vs 2 assists @ Ole Miss, until the last two games against Arkansas (16-6-3) and LSU (23-9-9). Doughty (6’ 4”) seemed to come out of his slump against Kentucky on February 1st, averaging 24-4.33-1 in Auburn’s last 3 games. Alabama plays at the 4th fastest pace in the country and that pace is controlled by Lewis. We saw Auburn struggle to play at Alabama’s pace in Tuscaloosa, and Lewis was the best player on the court during that game totaling 25 points and shooting 8-9 from the free throw line. McCormick and Doughty were awful in the first matchup shooting a combined 4-19 (0-5 from 3) for just 11 points. Both players fouled out. Auburn will need a much better performance from two of their best and most experienced players if they are going to win this game.
  • Anfernee McLemore
    • The 6-foot-7 PF/C has quietly been one of Auburn’s best players, if not their best player, this season and especially in conference play. On the season, the 21-year-old is shooting 68.4% from 2, 32.9% from 3, and has a 7.3 block %. During SEC play, he has been one of the best players in the conference. McLemore is either first or second on Auburn’s team with a 113.8 ORtg (22nd in SEC), a 18.7 DR% (12th), an 11.3 TORate (13th), a 3.0 Blk% (25th), and is shooting 67.7% from 2P range (4th). Isaac Okoro (3.2%) and Austin Wiley (8.1%) have a higher Blk%, and Wiley is #1 in the conference in both OR% and DR% (17.4% and 28.4). That means that Anfernee has the top rating on the team for ORtg, TORate, and 2P% during SEC play.
  • Devan Cambridge
    • The 6-foot-6 freshman forward has exploded twice for Auburn during conference play, going 7-10 from 3 (21 pts) against LSU and 6-9 from 3 (36 pts) against South Carolina. He has don’t virtually nothing in Auburn’s 8 other SEC games, totaling only 4 points and going 0-10 from beyond the arc. He has shot at least one 3-pointer in every SEC game except the first one. The bright spot for Auburn fans: he is shooting 38.5% from 3-point range this season which would indicate that he can add points from deep on any given night. The dark spot for Auburn fans: he is shooting a completely unsustainable 48% from 3-point range during SEC play (the last 10 games). I would expect more 0-1 or 0-2 games from distance for the young buck in coming games.
  • Jaden Shackelford
    • This would’ve been about Herb Jones if he was playing, but he isn’t. That isn’t to say that Shackelford isn’t a good player, he is. He has been one of the better players in the SEC during conference play. He has a 51.9% eFG% (16th) and a 56.9% TS% (15th). Those numbers are so good because he had shot 87.1% from the FT line and 37.5% from beyond the arc in conference play, good for 5th and 9th in the conference, respectively. All those numbers are the best on Alabama’s team.

I love this revenge spot for Auburn against a short-handed Crimson Tide team that has been playing like trash. The Tigers need to keep pace with LSU and Kentucky and are an impressive 13-0 at home. Bets: Auburn -7.5 & U160.5

Free Money Friday Every Day: Super Super Tuesday

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As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Yesterday 6-9:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • Hawks +8.5 @ Magic – Hawks lost by 9.
  • UNCA @ Hampton O161 – 80+70=150. This was the game for which I crunched a lot of numbers and did a bunch of research. Clearly research is overrated.
  • Kings +10.5 @ Bucks – Kings lost by 12.
  • Jazz @ Mavs U217.5 – 123+119=244. I don’t understand the Jazz.
  • TCU +10 @ Texas Tech – TCU lost 88-42. This was a butt whooping.
  • Texas +6 @ Baylor – Texas lost by 7.
  • Lost 3 ML Sprinkles, but hit the MikePick2

NCAAB 165-180-4:

  • Yesterday: 3-3
    • Mizzou +11 @ LSU: opened at 11.5 now 11
    • Air Force +10.5 @ Boise State
    • Ole Miss +1.5 hosting Mississippi State
    • Mississippi State @ Ole Miss O138
    • URI +10 @ Dayton
    • Notre Dame @ Virginia U122
    • Illinois +1.5 hosting Michigan State
    • Michigan State @ Illinois U141.5
    • Tennessee -3 hosting Arkansas
    • Bonaventure -8 @ St. Joe’s

NBA 63-55 +2.8u:

  • Yesterday: 2-3
    • Trail Blazers +3 @ New Orleans Pelicans: opened +3 now +3
    • Celtics +2 @ Rockets: opened +2 now +2

Sprinkles 25-41:

  • Ole Miss ML
  • Illinois ML
  • 76ers ML
  • Celtics ML
  • Golden Knights ML 
  • Blues ML

MikePick2 9-15:

  • Parlay: +320
    • Illinois ML
    • Ole Miss ML
  • Parlay: -105
    • Tennessee ML
    • LSU ML

 

Free Money Friday Every Day: Week in Review

By | Talent Columns, Views from the Couch | No Comments

As always, for more information behind each pick, watch Free Money Friday Every Day on the ESPN106.7 twitter account every weekday at 3 pm and every Sat/Sun at 10 am or listen to the Free Money Friday Every Day podcast on Apple PodcastsSpotifySticher, or espnau.com.

Over the Weekend 18-20

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

Today, since it is the start of a new week, I looked back at how last week went as a whole. The information is contained in each section below.

NCAAB 162-177-4:

  • Weekend: 8-15
  • Last Week: 34-41-1
  • Today’s Picks:
    • Radford +7.5 @ Winthrop
    • Baylor @ Texas +5.5
    • TCU +10 @ Texas Tech
    • Florida State +8 @ Duke
    • UNC Ashville @ Hampton O161

NBA 61-52 +3.9u 53.9%:

  • Over the Weekend: 8-2 +5.2u
  • Last Week: 14-9
  • Today’s Picks:
    • CHA @ DET U206
    • UTA @ DAL U217.5
    • MIN @ TOR O230.5
    • SAC +10.5 @ MIL
    • Dallas Mavs +1.5 hosting Utah Jazz
    • ATL Hawks +8.5 @ Orlando Magic

Sprinkles 25-36 -0.1u:

  • All Time Numbers by Sport:
    • NCAA: 15-30 -8.86 u
    • NBA: 7-6 +6.38 u
    • NHL: 3-2 +0.91 u
  • Weekend: 1-2
  • Today’s Picks:
    • FSU ML @ Duke
    • ATL ML @ ORL
    • DAL ML hosting UTA

MikePick2 8-15:

  • 3-3 in last week
  • Parley +105
    • Baylor ML @ Texas
    • MIA ML @ GSW