Free Money Friday Every Day: I’m Hot

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Yesterday 10-6:

Today is a new day with a new slate, so I don’t love to spend a lot of time looking at yesterday’s slate. There’s not a big reason to get too worked up over one day, but it is worth looking at what went right/wrong. I don’t really look at the Sprinkles in hindsight though because I don’t totally expect the team to win. That’s why I only sprinkle the ML. I believe they have a good chance, but I don’t expect the win.

  • AUB -3 @ UGA – lost by 10
  • RUTG -1 hosting Michigan – lost by 8
  • DePaul +4.5 hosting NOVA – lost by 20, fade the public in big conferences
  • BUT ML @ HALL – lost by 2 on a layup with 0.4 seconds left
  • TCU ML @ UT – lost by 14
  • SC ML @ MSST – lost by 3
  • Both parts of the MikePick2 lost.
  • So, if you take out the 5 sprinkles, I won 8 of my 11 picks. I am on fire.

Today’s Picks (Yesterday’s Record):

NCAAB 203-211-7 (8-3):

  • North Florida +9 @ Liberty
    • UNF has covered the spread in 76.9% of their games this season. That is the best rate in the country. Additionally, they are 8-1 ATS as an underdog, 12-2 ATS on the road, 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, and 11-2 ATS in conference play. Their worst applicable ATS trend is that they are 11-5 ATS after a win.
    • Liberty has not been nearly as good at covering the spread, only doing so in 54.2% of their games this season. They are 12-9 ATS after a win, 12-10-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-6-1 ATS at home and as a home favorite, and only 4-8 ATS in conference play.
    • Normally, that would be enough for me, but since the line is so high, I decided to dig a little deeper. These two teams are the best in their conference. It is a strength on strength match-up. UNF is #1 in the Atlantic Sun in 7 out of 10 offensive categories, including efficiency, every shooting percentage, and turnover percentage. Liberty’s defense is #1 in the ASUN in 6 out of 10 defensive categories, including efficiency, opponent effective FG percentage, opponent turnover percentage, and opponent offensive rebound percentage. UNF plays at the second fastest tempo in conference while Liberty plays at the 9th
    • Liberty’s offense is 2nd in the ASUN in efficiency, but they trail UNF by over 9 points per 100 possessions. That is a lot. UNF’s defense is not nearly as good as their offense, but they should be good enough at that end to hang around in this game. They don’t turn their opponents over and don’t limit offensive rebounds, but Liberty rarely ever turns the ball over or gets offensive rebounds anyway. Scottie James gets a lot of offensive rebounds for Liberty, but no one else really does. UNF is also the best team in the conference at defending the 3-point line.
    • I think Liberty will probably win this game because of UNF’s deficiencies on defense, but I do think that the Osprey’s are good enough on offense to keep their team in the game.
  • Nebraska Omaha +2 @ IPFW & 5
    • I don’t understand either of these lines at all.
    • IPFW has the worst offense in the Summit League. They rank 7th, 8th, or 9th in every offensive category except offensive rebound percentage. There are 9 teams in the Summit League.
    • Omaha isn’t great, but they force a good number of turnovers which is important when you’re playing on the road.
    • IPFW has had ONE conference game go over 147 points, on Jan 18th against Oral Roberts. They gave up 92 points in that game. They have scored 75 points twice in conference play. 75 and 77. Both against W Illinois. W Illinois is 5-18 this season and 2-11 in conference. This game is going under.
  • Oral Roberts -6.5 @ Denver & 5
    • Summit League home teams have covered 5 out of 21 games in February for a whopping 23.81%. On the season, road teams in the Summit League have covered 55.93% of games. That continues tonight.
    • Oral Roberts has all of the qualities you look for in a road conference team:
    • They don’t turn the ball over
    • They shoot well from the FT line
    • They shoot pretty well from 3 (35.1% in conference play)
    • They turn over their opponents
    • Also, Denver fouls too much and fouls good FT shooters (80% against)
    • Denver has lost 7 in a row and 12 out of 13 conference games. They have allowed 78 points or more in 10 conference games.
  • Iowa -2.5 hosting Ohio State
    • Iowa is covering by an average of 6.86 points per game at home in BIG10 play.

NBA 65-61:

  • MIA -6.5 @ ATL
  • MEM -1 @ SAC
  • HOU -10 @ GSW

Sprinkles 33-54 (2-3):

  • Nebraska Omaha ML @ IPFW

MikePick2 12-18 (0-1):

  • Parlay: +130
    • Iowa ML
    • Oral Roberts ML